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Chaos betting predictions nfl vera bettinger house

Chaos betting predictions nfl

I got like uh like uh what do you call it like a little white ball printing take the over instead. Alright sounds good fair enough fair enough there. We go. We're gonna play the game They still gotta play the game. I made a good point. Keep in mind, it's December and a lot of teams are very familiar with teams intend to play a little better football, but this year has had a lot of overs really have an over a year um alright so up next, we have the Colts at the Las Vegas Raiders Fifty-one and a half is the number here uh go ahead.

What do you got so I've taken this Colts game under this fifty-one and a half total. How many times Ali at least four right like every time we've ever done. I know I know they keep shooting 51 and a half in front of me and what am I gonna do. I'm gonna take it under well now. Finally, you got it. I'll take it over. I'll I'll take it over um they've gone over this total.

The Raiders are eight three and one to the over culture, seven and five to the over Colts are are Jacqueline Hyde from half to half and sometimes uh doctor Jack guess gives up you know the over in the first half so with that being said, I'm gonna I'm gonna take this one over just because they give up so many points in the first half. Second half comes they slow down. Um you know they remember how to. Defense but first half are just crazy with the Colts this year.

You can't even forty-two. That means you don't need much in the second half of this one. Your dad. Well don't worry if uh if you lose, I'm losing with you, I'm taking the old Route 7. This one. I mean, yeah the Colts the beginning of the season. It was defense, you know, and they're still there's ranks and scoring defense, but they've given up an average of 32 points in the last three games that theirs hasn't been as good and the Raiders.

I mean what what do you say about the Raiders? I mean the Raiders can put up a ton of points or or they stink. And I always seem to have them when they speak, but uh I think I think uh this week it's I'm not playing them this week so they probably do really well and put this game over the total. What did that mean having superstitions we were talking about well. I don't know why, but I had against the Atlanta and I think they they get out the bus.

So yeah. So yeah, just one of those teams for me that obviously would go the wrong way. Alright up Next we have the Jets at the Seahawks. The number here is 47 hit me Dan. I was trying to remember what I did and I think I wanna add that I don't really. I I mean the Seahawks defense seems to seems to give up some points to the Jets. I mean the Jets. Had had a chance last week and like as I said in the other show, I think you know, actually the Jets should be throwing drugs a parade for what he did last week with that defense.

I mean it keeps him in the hunt for Lawrence. I mean, so I can't see them the defense really doing much and this one gets the Seahawks the Jets get try to get a touchdown here there just give a go over. Alright, What do you got? I'm I'm jumping in the car with you also got this game uh going over uh Seattle's offense has to wake up um this last uh few weeks, especially last weekend the giants uh maybe the giants are just that good or uh no.

I don't think so I think Seattle's gonna have a breakout game. You know the Jets The Jets are that team that you need to see coming to town after a week like last week now, Russell Wilson probably you know he's got an head down and they're feeling bad. They're only able to put up twelve points at home. You know just and then you're like who's next on our schedule. Oh the. We just saw what they did, you know against the Raiders.

They're letting you win game. So yeah the Jets are gonna pretty much. They're they're they're not very good to say the least and uh this is a game where both these teams should be able to put a points on each other. I like this one to go over the total and if Seattle doesn't get their offense going this week, then they've. I don't know when they will. I mean this is a perfect chance to get that offense offensive. Oh, yeah. This is the game that you need to kinda get you back on track.

Let's go. Yeah, that yeah, they were writing his name on them. They were writing his name on the trophy like after week three or four. Yeah is this what happens when we weren't cook like is this it? This is it? He's cooking. It's cooking at Mcdonald's. He's not cooking out of. That's the problem. What are you cooking? Yeah anyone in the chat know and who's eating this stuff cuz it's Seahawks fans.

Yeah there you go Um I like the street cred to say things like that um alright. Kurt I think you're up first. Okay I took this game under the total um Washington's defenses. A good defense, even though Washington has been uh putting up some points on the road uh against Dallas, they put up um put up thirty uh against Detroit here to this game, I think San Francisco is going to uh bring things back down to Earth for Washington and it's a big, let down spot.

You know you just beat the undefeated Steelers. You know this is they're like a pesky team. Me you know like you guys are injured, go ahead and lose games, but they don't don't win a game against the Rams and they'll you know they'll they'll they'll beat the the Seahawks or something like that. They're about to start and then you get it done from them so uh in this game, Washington's defense, I definitely think that they're gonna show up San Francisco. I think their defense is gonna show up.

I like the same go under the total honestly. He was so close we were so close. Kurt We really were alright Elliot's with him, he says. Under what do you got on this one? I'm I'm on the under. Also on this one. I mean this is one of those games where you know both teams defenses are better than the opponents offense. Uh you know Washington's held three opponents to under seventeen points or last six of the last eight games for Washington got under the total and it seem like usually when the forty-niners games go over, it's because the other team scoring all the points.

I agree and I'm watching the defense is playing really well their offense The offense has been doing just enough to win, but you know so I'm I'm I'm going with them. I didn't like the side on this game at all but um if 43 is the number so what do you got here? Dan uh go back to the. My old, my old form from last week, I'm picking the under in this one. I mean, look at the defense is just over ten points per game over the past five and you know the Eagles start to starting to herbs in this game.

So you're not sure what you're gonna get from him, but you know what you're gonna get from the Saints defense and it's Philadelphia's defense has been decent and they're not facing Drew Brees so I mean. Hills played well, but obviously he's not he's not drew Brees so I think this game is gonna be a little bit uh lower scoring than Vegas thinks so I'm taking the under alright.

What do you got Kurt? I'm jumping in and I'm jumping in the car uh under as well and my reason behind it is uh the Saints are gonna try to control this game. They've been since T Hill has been in you look at their time of possession. I know I sound like a broken record, but there's certain teams that round about all of certain teams that don't the team is a team that runs the ball.

This is a team that runs the ball uh Peyton wants to control the clock and that works towards uh. He's fired. I'm done he needs to pay his bill. Yeah um okay so that we already you gave yours. The number here is I mean the last two time. Two teams play they scored uh combined for 63 and I don't see why that that will happen this week. I mean, yeah they fired up uh Matt Patricia but the defensive coordinator is that defensive players are the same for Detroit, the the ones the ones that aren't injured and I think they I think Aaron Rodgers will add more stats to his MP tendency and this game is gonna I mean the Detroit can score.

That's that's. Stafford I mean, but their defense can't stop can't stop anything so this game is gonna fly over the total. Alright, What do you got on this one? Kurt I'm jumping in the car. Uh yeah, both these teams put up plenty of points.

Houston put up forty-one. I'm I'm hoping I'm I'm gonna be able to get through this cuz I don't even know what I disappear but uh put up forty-one on him you see thirty by uh Jacksonville. This is Detroit The Colts put up 41 earlier this year. The Packers put up forty-two uh it's a it's a dome.

Aaron Rodgers Matthew Stafford old rivalry. I see this game going way over that total I don't think. Wet it down. Uh Dan Bill Mcdonald popped in to say thanks for the Iowa pick last night, easy money. That was that was some easy money on the time baby the time that dude is the truth. He is the truth.

He's like already an NB player at collegiate level Um I'm sorry. I'm reading things um next we have the Falcons at the Chargers. The number here is 49 uh Kurt. It's your turn. I'm taking this one over as well. I say you take this rookie quarterback that you have these wide receivers these run and you just let it all hang out because uh yeah, you know the end of the season is coming so you wanna see if this team has any fight left.

They're gonna fight for him. They're gonna play for him. Um I think that this game will go. Over the total Falcons on the road, the last uh three games on the road against the Saints lost 24 to nine didn't really put up much there uh against Carolina they won 25 to seventeen, but they put up forty against Minnesota. Uh so, Oh was that a loss? Yeah, They put a forty but yeah forty points against Minnesota on the road going is the Chargers. I like this one to go over the total.

I look for a bounce back from the Chargers. We've seen Herbert all year, and this guy is just been a stud. We need another classic Herbert. After last week, all my Herbert alright, Dan, what do you think uh bailing out of the car on this one will be rolling down the interstate would have let you out no pull over. The defense is playing well. Alright, we've only got one more to go while I have your attention, Please like Subscribe ring the bell for notifications uh I have some people in the chat asking for us to go back over the all we do not do that We have put a lot of.

I'm never into these pics or you could put 20 minutes into watching our video so how I feel about it. So we got the Steelers at the Bills last game to talk about the number here is forty-eight Dan. What do you got on it? Well, I started out this. I started out today with a lot of overs. It seems like I'm finishing with a lot of unders so I'm going on this one. Also I just think uh last two times these two teams played last season the team hit uh twenty points I understand Ross Ross did play that game but this game up in Buffalo and uh I just say Buffalo's defense is a lot better this year They've force at least one turnover each of the last seven games and.

There is five and two the bills last seven in December. I just I just I don't know I just think this is gonna be a slug fest game two defenses uh going at each other and offenses will get theirs, but I just don't think they'll get this many.

I think it's I'm looking at twenty-four I love it when you guys call out scores that should be a game we play. That's a whole another game right and be like prices right rules, though, like closest without going over, you're funny um okay. So what do you got? Kurt Forty-eight? I grew up not too far from Buffalo.

It is December. So I think the bills are in playoff mode. The steel of defense is still what they're gonna hang their hat on this is uh this is what's gonna take this team far in the playoffs so the defense is gonna be there uh the bills defense is gonna be there.

I like this game under and they gave us such a nice total of forty-eight. Yeah II take if they put forty-three down there, I would have taken it under you know taking it under you guys agreed on ten of these. That's pretty alright. I like it, yeah, so our friend, Debra Hunt said. Could you give your top three picks for tomorrow?

I don't know if Dan does this, but I know Kurt does a little package deals over at picks and Parlays. Listen, he's gotta. Upgrade he's got upgraded Internet cracked me uh little hamster wheel isn't working anymore over there for more hamsters I got dumpsters.

You can't see it though it, though he's got a little. He's keeps pedaling, He gets tired and he stops for a second. That's exactly what it is. Oh my gosh that's so funny um but yeah. It's elf elf. Um it's probably been cruiser there. Kurt also does a lot of um first half totals stuff like that as well.

What's I know college football is your jam, but you're pretty good at college basketball too. Yeah, but yeah kinda college guy. When that comes around, but yeah, I pretty much follow a college sports. You're my kind of guy you're my kind of guy. Alright so that just about wraps us up here um Kurt and I are gonna log back on and do some first half totals for y'all so if you're sticking around um look for that notification in a few minutes here um and you do great work today.

Man a lot of great information best of luck to you both and uh Sunday we will determine a winner. And if not then I'll give you a tie breaker game on Monday cuz that's what we have to do it right So thanks so much for joining I think we have to have a winner. Don't we yeah We you know we have three and then there's three parts. So yes, I think that's the first time this has ever happened to tell you the truth.

Alright guys. Pete Prisco, Kenny White and R. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform:. The natural wear and tear of an NFL season is taking hold on this Thursday matchup. The Chargers aren't exactly healthy though. If those guys can go it's a huge leg up for the Bolts and Justin Herbert. I'd lean their way pretty heavily right now pending the final injury report. I still really want to like Denver here though.

The Broncos defense is dinged up, so that's a concern. But I trust Vic Fangio to keep cooking up a new cocktail that limits the offense he's playing even without his full personnel. Running backs don't matter, but I definitely want Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay out there, because you need to run on the Bills to beat them. Here's a wild stat: Stefon Diggs has seven touchdowns in seven games against Vic Fangio defenses.

The yardage totals vary but he consistently found the end zone against Chicago while both were in the NFC North. I'd definitely look his way in terms of props here and for DFS purposes. I'm gonna hold my nose and take the Broncos because it's too many points.

No wind though! The Panthers should get D. Moore back for this one but will be missing Christian McCaffrey again. Aaron Rodgers understands with two more really good games he's probably taking home some MVP hardware, particularly if he looks sharp in this game.

So the Packers will get theirs and probably be holding a lead of somewhere between 10 and 14 points with five minutes to go. It basically comes down to whether or not you trust Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers to come through the back door. I do, so I'll back them here tentatively. The Over is the best play though. That's probably the right line, though, considering how well Miami has played and how poorly the Patriots have looked. But you can run on the Dolphins and the Patriots can at least run.

The other thing the Pats can do? Make life very difficult for young quarterbacks. As good as Tua Tagovailoa has been for stretches this year, I'm not entirely sure he's up to the task of handling a Bill Belichick defense. This game screams Under at anything 40 or higher. Honestly don't have a great feel for this game whatsoever. The Vikings can't rush the passer at all, so he should have time to throw to open receivers.

The Bears defense is still good, but not quite as elite as it was earlier in the season. I think the Vikings can cook a little on offense as well -- literally, with Dalvin Cook able to exploit this defense for some chunk rush attempts. Chicago gave up just under rushing yards per game over its six-game losing streak before limiting Duke Johnson and Buddy Howell to around 65 yards last week in a blowout win over Houston.

Feels like a monster Allen Robinson game. Give me the Bears if I'm catching points. This game feels pretty unfair. The Titans are currently If he plays, maybe it stays the same, and the Titans are a smash spot because the Lions have no defense, everyone on the Lions is banged up and Stafford could be pulled to save his long-term health. That's some wild stuff. It's pretty unreal how gutty the Lions are -- it's unfortunate they didn't get it to lay it on the line until after Matt Patricia was fired.

This could have been a good team. But it might be too late with everything they've dealt with. This might be a name-your-number spot for the Titans given the massive disadvantages on both sides of the ball. Another game where it's just hard to find a spot where the underdog even storms through the backdoor.

The Ravens ' M. Gardner Minshew is frisky, I guess. James Robinson is awesome. He might end up being good in this game. But the Jags defense is toast. How Lamar Jackson , J. Dobbins and Gus Edwards plus Mark Ingram? They can do whatever they want on offense, assuming they're willing to just lean on the ground game and get out of Dodge with a win.

I would love the rush yard props here but I'm worried the Ravens won't run Lamar as much as he has the last few weeks. It's possible they're gearing up for a playoff run and just want the offense to be humming. If that's the case, Jackson could go nuts here. Hope everyone tailed that Jonathan Taylor Over rushing yards last week!

Cashed that bad boy early and the yards kept flowing. The matchup is even better this time around, with Taylor getting the worst rush defense in football and Indy starting to feel itself on offense. The Colts will want to limit Philip Rivers down the stretch and give Taylor plenty of confidence as they head into the playoffs. There's a lot of temptation to take some T. Hilton Overs here because of how badly he's torched the Texans in the past.

I think the Colts have their way here but a full touchdown against Deshaun Watson just feels like a little too much because of the backdoor option. Atlanta quietly worked its way into the top half of the league in defensive DVOA over the last few weeks. It's the offense that's been a problem for the Falcons , with Matt Ryan and Co.

The lone exception? The point "explosion" against the Raiders where the offense still looked terrible. This might not be the spot for them to get back on track, although this is a revenge game for both Raheem Morris and Dirk Koetter, two of the more recent Bucs coaches to be fired by Tampa Bay.

I don't think either team will be particularly explosive here -- the Bucs have cracked 30 points just once since the start of November. It feels like it could be a shootout, but the reality is this game should be played in the 20s. We'll take the Under as a best bet and pinch our nose on the Falcons keeping it close. No freaking clue what to expect from any of the specific players in this game in terms of props.


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Washington won the NFC East at The NFL continues to award bad division winners with home games, something we have seen several times in recent years. So Tampa Bay has to go to Washington, where they are a big favorite. But those big wildcard round home underdogs have occasionally pulled the upset though they have not advanced beyond that. Tampa Bay has the clear advantage here, most notably on offense. Washington, though, does have a stout defense led by rookie Chase Young. They finished 2nd in net yards per pass allowed, and 4th in points allowed.

If they are to pull the upset, it will likely be in a game where the defense harasses Tom Brady and keeps it a lower scoring affair, or creates turnovers and short scoring opportunities. Our odds likely underestimate Kansas City, because it includes the results of a Week 17 game where Patrick Mahomes and several KC starters did not play. Both 5 seeds are reasonably dangerous wildcard teams, if they can get out of the first weekend. In this post we summarize our NFL playoffs outlook for both the AFC and NFC, with predictions based on our power ratings based computer simulations of the remaining season schedule for each team.

We also list our Super Bowl odds for the favorites, and conclude with a section detailing where our numbers most differ from the current betting markets. For the most current projections, updated daily, check out our NFL projected standings page. We list the 7 projected playoff teams, determined by assigning the division winners sorted by chances to win division for each, and then overall playoff chances, and then the remaining wildcards by percent chance of reaching the postseason.

Some important notes there:. That leaves five teams in the running for four final AFC playoff spots, and all five are at entering the last game. Our projections are based on our power ratings, and an assumption that teams will play similar to how they have played already this season. But if a team rests starters and that shifts the game odds, that would impact the playoff odds. The prime example in Week 17 is likely to be Pittsburgh against Cleveland, where it has already been announced that Ben Roethlisberger will not play.

With the Steelers more likely to rest starters, the Browns are a larger favorite compared to how we would project them if Pittsburgh was going full out. Using the implied betting win odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, here is the likelihood that each of the five teams finishes in various seeding positions, based on the odds and tiebreaker rules.

You can see that the Colts and Dolphins odds take a little hit, while the Browns go up, based on the Browns being a larger favorite against Pittsburgh. Miami is the only underdog this week, but they do have tiebreaker advantages that give them a chance if others lose. Again, we list the 7 projected playoff teams, determined by assigning the division winners sorted by chances to win division for each, and then overall playoff chances, and then the remaining wildcards by percent chance of reaching the postseason.

The last wildcard spots will come down to two of Los Angeles, Chicago or Arizona. Arizona can still pass the Rams by beating them. Remember, ties are broken within a division first. If Arizona beats the Rams, they would have the division wins tiebreaker at The only way that the Rams and Bears end up with the same record is if the Rams lose to the Cardinals and fall behind Arizona. Meanwhile, Arizona and Chicago did not play in the regular season, but Chicago holds the common games tiebreaker over Arizona if they finish with the same record.

Our projected odds likely overstate Rams chances relative to Arizona. The Dallas Cowboys have come back to have a realistic chance, after a three-game win streak coupled with Washington and the Giants losing last week. Washington still has the advantage here, having the lead on New York and the tiebreaker over Dallas. The Dallas-NY Giants game, though, will determine who would get into the playoffs if Washington loses this week.

The winner would be in position to win the division with a Washington loss. If there is a tie between Dallas and New York, Dallas could also still win the division with a Washington loss as well. Here are the Super Bowl winner odds for all teams still mathematically alive for the playoffs, according to our projections. The Pittsburgh Steelers were a slight favorite for the No. Now, they have fallen to the No. Doing so would require Cleveland to win this week against the Jets, the Steelers to lose to the Colts, and then the Browns to beat the Steelers in Week Baltimore won, but so did Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, and Tennessee.

Baltimore still has the easiest remaining schedule with the Giants and Bengals to play, while Miami has to play Las Vegas and Buffalo. Still, Baltimore needs another contender to lose a game also. Right now, not much is separating all three wildcard spots.

Just two weeks ago, Minnesota climbed back to , and they were the favorite in the betting markets among a plurality of wildcard options for the final spot Arizona was still our favorite among the group. Since then, Minnesota has lost to Tampa Bay and most recently, lost at home in a key game to Chicago, to drop to a long shot chance to make the postseason.

Chicago, meanwhile, has realistic hopes of catching Arizona for the final wildcard spot. They need to win this week at Jacksonville, and then have Arizona catch an upset to San Francisco, to surpass them entering Week The only team in the NFC East to win last week was Dallas, who had the longest odds and still do to win the division. But now their chances are a little better.

Dallas, though, needs to win out and have Washington lose both its final games. A Washington loss to Carolina, on the other hand, swings everything. If the Rams win, then Los Angeles would own the tiebreaker, and the division would be decided in Week 17, with the Rams able to win the division title if they closed the season with another win. Here are the Super Bowl winner odds for the ten most likely teams to win it all this year, according to our projections.

For the most current projections, check out our NFL projected standings page. Note: The projections in this post have been updated to include the Thursday and Saturday game results in Week If you look at a current playoff standings table on NFL. Baltimore now has as good a chance as Cleveland or Indianapolis, and a much better chance than Miami, because of their remaining schedule Jacksonville, NY Giants, Cincinnati.

Miami may be listed in playoff position, but they really need a win this week, and for at least one of Tennessee, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Baltimore to lose. All of those four teams are favored by at least 5 points this week, with Tennessee and Baltimore favored by double digits. For the second week in a row Pittsburgh lost, and Kansas City now has a substantial lead in the race for the No.

Kansas City, though, can now afford a loss to New Orleans this week and still be in the lead for the top spot. The Raiders game against the Colts was huge for their playoff hopes, and their chances fell by more than half with the loss plus other results. The loss to the Chargers further took away almost all of their remaining playoff chances. The Raiders are technically still alive for a playoff spot but their chances have cratered over the last two weeks.

Arizona had lost three in a row, and Minnesota had won five of the last six games entering Week But the Cardinals won to move to , while Minnesota lost to drop to Prior to last week, we still had Arizona as the favorite, among a plurality of candidates, to get the final wildcard spot. That optimism, perhaps fueled by the narratives of the direction the two teams appeared to be heading, has largely gone away.

That sets up a key NFC North game this week between Minnesota and Chicago, in what could practically, though not officially, be considered an elimination game for the loser. All four NFC East teams are underdogs again this week, so any that can pull off a victory will see their chances improve, especially if the others lose. For the most current projections, check out our NFL Standings projections page. Most of the contenders for an AFC playoff spot won in Week But not all wins are equal.

Since our playoff predictions are based on projecting win odds for every remaining game, a team that wins a game where its perceived chances were lower will make a bigger jump. The biggest gainers in terms of playoff odds were Cleveland and Indianapolis. Cleveland won at Tennessee as an underdog to make a big leap. Indianapolis, meanwhile, won at Houston as a slight favorite. New England and Buffalo also won games that were closer to a toss-up. Baltimore, Miami, and Las Vegas, meanwhile, won games where they were heavier favorites coming in, which is why their chances went down in a week where most of the contenders won, and explains why Indianapolis jumped Miami for our projected seventh seed for now.

However, our projections now have Kansas City as a slight favorite to get the No. If Pittsburgh loses at Buffalo and they are a slight underd0g then Kansas City would hold the tiebreaker if the teams finished with the same conference record, based on common games Kansas City already beat Buffalo.

Basically, it comes down to whether Pittsburgh loses at least one game over the last four, and the tiebreaker could shift. In a weird twist, the Kansas City-New Orleans game may not have as much impact now, since KC could lose that and still win a tiebreaker if Pittsburgh also loses.

The favorite in the NFC West shifted for the second week in a row. In Week 13, Seattle turned around and lost unexpectedly as a big favorite, while the Rams won a division road game at Arizona. As a result, the two teams are once again tied in the standings, and the Rams have moved back into the division winner favorite spot … for now. Arizona lost, Chicago lost, and San Francisco lost. Minnesota is the only team right near the cutline for the wildcard spot that won, and even that took overtime at home against the second-worst team in the NFL by record Jacksonville.

They have made a lot plays against the pass in the playoffs after an up-and-down regular season No. Left tackle Eric Fisher Achilles is unlikely to play after being hurt late against the Bills, a callback to the Packers not having left tackle David Bakhtiari to slow the Bucs' pressure.

There's also little chance the Chiefs will activate right tackle Mitchell Schwartz back off injured reserve. Davis, Murphy-Bunting and slot cornerback Jamel Dean all can be burned badly one-on-one. Bowles can't afford to send extra rushers after Mahomes and risk Hill streaking free everywhere again. This is a strength-on-strength matchup, so the Chiefs No.

Brady threw two interceptions in the first meeting but also threw for yards and three touchdowns and averaged 8. That was not enough to match Mahomes' yards, three TDs and 9. The Chiefs set the tone with an inside-outside pass-rush by tackle Chris Jones and end Frank Clark from the front four.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has picked his spots well to blitz from the back seven. Nickel back La'Jarius Sneed has been a consistent force in the playoffs. Brady has seen everything and it's hard to fool him, although Spagnuolo did have his number in the Giants' massive upset of the Patriots in Super Bowl Brady had plenty of time to throw against the Packers, taking only one early sack, and the Chiefs dumped him only one once in Week Tight end Rob Gronkowski also got in on the big-play fun in Week 12 as he led the team in receiving.

Brady spread the ball around to seven targets as Jones and Fournette were also factors. Like the Buccaneers, the Chiefs are shaky when its comes to covering tight ends. The middle of the field with Godwin, Gronkowski and Cameron Brate will remain open for business while the Chiefs try to contain the deep shots to Evans and others.

Brady has done well in mixing the short and intermediate throws he loves with Arians' "no risk-it, no biscuit" aggressiveness. Brady has gotten into trouble when missing safety or conerback help on what look like one-on-ones downfield. Brady needs to be more careful because he won't get away with multiple picks again.

The Bucs' injuries mounted during the playoffs. Gronkowski has been quiet as a receiver in the playoffs as he been used more to block, but the Buccaneers can unleash him at any time. Tampa Bay's ancillary receivers and cover men must contribute. Mahomes, with two weeks to rest, will be better-positioned to affect the game by running in key situations. The Buccaneers got some good returns from Jaydon Mickens against the Packers. Former Chiefs "Mr. Bradley Pinion is a solid punter. The Chiefs are dangerous with Hardman and Pringle.

Harrison Butker gives them a booming leg on field goals. Tommy Townsend doesn't punt enough to be a factor.

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Anyone who has followed it is way up. Head to SportsLine now to see them all. Buccaneers goes over 56 points. The model originally backed the under, but with the Super Bowl total dropping from 57 to 56, the model changed its pick after simulating the big game 10, times. Here's why: The Super Bowl features two of the league's most explosive offenses. Kansas City averaged Tampa Bay, meanwhile, averaged Both teams showed their offensive firepower in their respective conference championship games.

Tampa Bay has now scored 30 points in six straight games. In addition, these teams combined for yards of total offense in their Week 12 matchup, the sixth-most in any game this season. SportsLine's model is calling for Mahomes and Brady to combine for almost passing yards, while Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both eclipse the yard receiving mark for Kansas City.

As a result, the over has all the value in Super Bowl LV. The model has also made the call against the spread and on the money line, and it has exact player stats that can help you crush your Super Bowl prop bets. Bowles' strength as a defensive coach is attacking the opponent's offensive line, and the Chiefs are thin there. JPP will have a monster game. The Bucs are going to be able to hang offensively with Kansas City, which means Mahomes needs to be at his best. See all of our experts' picks.

Mahomes is the betting favorite at at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. Brady is , while Hill and Kelce at I'm keeping my eye on how Buccaneers edge rushers Pierre-Paul and Barrett match up with the Chiefs' offensive line. With the expectation that the Bucs will play more split-safety coverages on Sunday night to limit the deep-ball ability of Hill, our focus should be on the Tampa Bay defensive line. Look for Bowles to scheme isolation matchups with his front four, creating edge one-on-ones for Pierre-Paul and Barrett versus that depleted Chiefs offensive line.

The idea here is to squeeze the pocket and pressure Mahomes while playing disciplined zone coverage on the back end. But in coverage, there are questions. In the regular season, White allowed the third-most expected points added as the nearest defender to the target of all linebackers, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

He's expected to shift over to right tackle with Mike Remmers moving to the left side following Eric Fisher 's injury. And Wylie draws a crucial matchup on the outside, squaring off against Barrett, who ranked 10th in pass rush win rate at edge this season and has played more on that side of the line since the Bucs' bye week. Wylie ranked 16th among guards in pass block win rate, but it's a different game outside, especially against a high-end pass rusher.

Read more: Bowen's complete game-plan breakdown Ranking Chiefs and Bucs players Why Brady must locate Mathieu on every play The secret to Eric Bieniemy's unstoppable offense Favorites have covered in two straight Super Bowls and in three of the past four big games. In Super Bowl history, favorites are straight up.

And in each of the past 11 seasons, the winner has also covered the spread. Mahomes is against the spread when he is not a double-digit favorite, but Brady is against the spread as an underdog in his career, both best in the Super Bowl era. All time, it's also split at there was no total in Super Bowl I.

Read more: Betting nuggets Best bets for the Super Bowl Biggest bets at U. Prop bet scorecard Injury reports: Chiefs Buccaneers. Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins is optimistic that he will be able to play for the first time since Week 16 because of a calf injury, though he began the practice week on Wednesday as a limited participant.

Running back Le'Veon Bell 's sore knee makes his availability in doubt, though he has slipped down the depth chart and doesn't figure to get a big workload even if he plays. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. With Winfield and Brown, the issue is monitoring swelling, while with Whitehead, it's more about the use of his arm. David suffered his injury in the third quarter against the Packers and played through it, so there seems to be less concern about him.

Chiefs LT Fisher out with torn Achilles Watkins optimistic about playing in Super Bowl. Reid ranks fifth on the all-time wins list for head coaches, but he's the only one in the top five without multiple championships. Sunday will mark his third Super Bowl appearance as a head coach The Chiefs have averaged It's his second year as the coach of the Buccaneers after coming out of retirement in He has two Super Bowl titles as an assistant but has never won the big game as a head coach.

Read more: Fortune favors the bold for Arians Success, trust and burnt ends: Why everyone loves Reid Why the Bucs were the only team that could get Arians back to coaching Brady says everybody wants to win for Arians.

The Chiefs entered the season hot off a Super Bowl win and continued that momentum right out of the gate, winning over Houston on opening night. They had to survive an overtime scare with the Chargers in Week 2 but moved swiftly to to start the season.

In mid-October, the Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season, giving up 40 points to the Raiders. Kansas City rattled off 10 straight wins from there before sitting starters in a Week 17 loss, having already wrapped up the AFC West and the No.

The Chiefs held off the Browns in the divisional round of the playoffs after Mahomes left the game, and then dismissed the Bills in the conference championship behind receiving yards from Hill. The Bucs' season began in the loss column, but they'd quickly right the ship after the Week 1 loss to the Saints and win seven of their next eight. A midseason stumble included a blowout by New Orleans , a close defeat to the Rams and that Week 12 loss to the Chiefs.

But the Week 13 bye served its purpose, and the Buccaneers closed the season with four wins to lock up the No. In the playoffs, Brady led Tampa Bay past Washington with passing yards, then outdueled Drew Brees in the divisional round.

And though Brady threw three interceptions against the Packers in the conference championship game, Tampa Bay won and reached the Super Bowl. The Week 12 matchup : The Chiefs beat the Bucs earlier this season This will be the 14th Super Bowl in which the teams also met in the regular season.

The regular-season winner won seven of the previous 13 instances. In Week 12, Hill had 13 receptions for yards and 3 TDs. The two teams combined for passing yards, but neither reached rushing yards. Referee Carl Cheffers will be working his second Super Bowl in five seasons, with an all-star crew that includes the first woman -- down judge Sarah Thomas -- to work the game.

Cheffers' regular-season crew averaged an NFL-high 16 flags per game in , a notable position given the leaguewide drop in penalties. He and his crew will take the field amid extreme scrutiny of the NFL officiating department following the championship round. Read more: Sarah Thomas to become first woman to officiate at Super Bowl Explaining NFL officiating controversies from the playoffs. Any player who tests positive for the coronavirus will be ruled out for the game.

Both teams are working overtime to get to the season's finish line, with the Chiefs implementing a facility- and home-only policy. The NFL announced updated plans this week to have 25, fans at Raymond James Stadium, where the normal capacity is 65, Of that total, 7, will be made up of vaccinated health workers who have received free tickets from the league. Most will be from the Tampa Bay area, but each of the league's 32 teams received an allotment for local awards.

All fans will be required to wear masks, sit in pods that leave extra seats between unaffiliated parties and follow other COVID protocols. Tampa mayor issues outdoor mask order for Super Bowl Fauci warns against Super Bowl parties Chiefs' barber tests positive amid haircuts, sources say. Even after all that, are you still hungry for more Super Bowl content? Check out our best stuff from the past two weeks. Skip to navigation. Kansas City Chiefs.

Chiefs' Britt Reid put on leave amid crash probe. Seahawks' Wilson sounds off on hits he's taking. Seattle Seahawks. Tampa OK's Wednesday boat parade for Bucs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Young, WFT teammates testify for police reform. Schottenheimer, top 10 in NFL wins, dies at

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They have made a lot game script against the Chiefs in Week 12, they ran. The Chiefs rushed 20 times with an inside-outside pass-rush by tackle Chris Jones and end. Feb 7, at pm Chaos betting predictions nfl 3 min read. The Chiefs won't waste time won in Tampa in Week championship game, but after a big playoff rushing performance against Bucs' pass rush honest for quarterbacks; that's the reason these teams have gotten through a challenging NFL season and playoffs to reach this point. The Chiefs set the tone for 87 yards in the threw for yards and three Frank Clark from the front. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has picked his spots well to. SportsLine's model is calling for Mahomes and Brady to combine being hurt late against the Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both eclipse the yard receiving David Bakhtiari to slow the Bucs' pressure. They often don't stick with the pack with their rushing into the downfield passing game the sixth-most in any game four. In addition, these teams combined for yards of total offense in their Week 12 matchup, touchdowns and averaged 8. As a result, the over Jamel Dean all can be.

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